October WASDE: bigger corn crop, stocks jump

What it said

• Corn: USDA raised the 2026 U.S. corn yield 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bu/acre, lifting production 234 million bushels to 16.0 billion. Harvested area was unchanged at 88.5 million acres. Beginning stocks were raised 173 million bushels after the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report.
• Corn use was raised 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion, with exports up 25 million to 3.3 billion. Ending stocks rose 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. The season-average farm price was lowered $0.10 to $4.70.
• Soybeans: yield up 0.3 bushel to a record 53.1 bu/acre; production 4.56 billion bushels (up 27 million). Exports up 10 million bushels, crush unchanged, ending stocks up 5 million to 315 million. Season-average price unchanged at $12.00.
• Wheat: production estimated at 1,534 million bushels — still the smallest U.S. crop since 1970. Exports cut 25 million bushels to 750 million, mostly Hard Red Winter, partly offset by higher White wheat exports. Ending stocks raised 23 million to 740 million (20% below last year). Season-average price lowered $0.10 to $6.30.
• World: global wheat ending stocks fractionally lower at 276.0 million tons; Russia's exports cut to 40.0 million tons, a 5-year low. World corn ending stocks up 8.3 million tons to 280.4 million.

Why it matters for the PNW

• USDA specifically noted higher White wheat exports while HRW stays uncompetitive overseas. That's worth watching against Portland soft white and HRW bids on our basis tracker.

Plain-English takeaway

• A bigger-than-expected corn crop and higher stocks were the headline. Soybeans changed little. U.S. wheat supplies are tight by historical standards, but export demand is soft.

Source: USDA WASDE-676, Oct 9, 2026. Educational commentary only.