CL 99.02 +1.1%ZS 1,261.25 -0.1%ZC 474.25 -0.8%ZW 660.50 -1.4%GC 4,181.10 +0.3%SI 57.30 +0.8%SPY 763.25 -1.1%DELAYED QUOTES · AS OF Oct 17 07:41 AM PT

Daily Market Recap

Friday, Oct 16, 2026 · 2026-10-16 · 6 DESKS
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Local Cash Bids

USDA AMS
Source: USDA AMS Market News. Prices are indicative averages, not offers to buy or sell. All regions →

Crude

energy

What the market did

November WTI settled up $3.44 at $101.41 a barrel Friday, its highest close in a month and its seventh straight daily gain. That's a weekly gain of more than 10%. December Brent settled up $3.94 at $109.86, its highest since May 19, and diesel futures settled just under $4.90 a gallon.

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: this was a supply-route story more than a demand story. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz kept Gulf flows down, and unconfirmed Iranian media reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a key bypass around Hormuz, had been targeted hit harder than ordinary regional headlines.
  • Distillates got a second leg: Russia's Ryazan refinery halted a primary unit after the Oct. 15 drone strike. Meanwhile U.S. lawmakers moved to block the administration's Russian diesel sanctions deal.
  • What changed since the last official reports: EIA's latest weekly report (week ended Oct. 9) showed a commercial crude draw of more than 8 million barrels, tied to hurricane shut-ins. CFTC data released Friday (positions as of Tuesday) showed money managers cutting their net bullish WTI position to about 40,600 contracts from about 53,600 a week earlier. So fund money was pulling back even as prices climbed into Tuesday.
  • For the Columbia Basin: EIA's last retail survey (Oct. 12) had West Coast diesel outside California at $6.503 a gallon, up 1.3 cents on the week, and that was before this week's futures rally. Haulers and growers running fall fieldwork will see in Tuesday's EIA update whether pump prices are following futures higher.

Reports to watch

  • EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update — Tue Oct 20, about 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Wed Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders — Fri Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET

Sources

Soybeans

grains

What the market did

November soybeans settled down 1.75 cents at $12.6125 Friday after touching a six-week low, and finished the week down 30.75 cents. December meal fell $2.70 to $357.10 (down $8.50 on the week), and December soybean oil slipped 2 points to 67.13 cents.

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: record-crop harvest pace and a weak crush outweighed a real pickup in export demand. NOPA's September crush of 196.3 million bushels was a 13-month low, well under trade expectations.
  • Export demand was the offset. USDA flash sales Friday included 558,000 t to China and 236,000 t to unknown destinations, the third straight day of China sales, and DTN counted more than 50 million bushels of new sales this week. Firm crude also pulled bean oil back near unchanged midday.
  • Our cash data: USDA's Iowa report put the average interior soybean bid at $11.96 Friday. Basis averaged about 66 cents under November, wider than about 57 cents under a week earlier. So Iowa cash fell about 36 cents on the week, more than futures did.
  • CFTC data released Friday (positions as of Tuesday): money managers' net bullish soybean position eased to about 249,800 contracts from about 258,100.
  • For the Columbia Basin: Portland's USDA report carries no soybean bids, so beans reach the Basin mostly through feed costs. This week's $8.50 drop in December meal lowers protein costs in dairy and feedlot rations.

Reports to watch

  • USDA Crop Progress — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
  • USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders — Fri Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET

Sources

Corn

grains

What the market did

December corn settled down 3.75 cents at $4.7425 Friday, its lowest close in two months and its fourth straight lower session. It finished the week down 5.5 cents.

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: good harvest weather and Brazil supply estimates kept pressure on, while demand quietly improved underneath. Brazil's Conab put the 2027 crop at 148 MMT, well above USDA's figure.
  • Demand side: EIA ethanol output rose to about 1.065 million barrels per day for the week ended Oct. 9, a one-month high. USDA flash sales Friday included 127,000 t to Japan, and DTN noted U.S. corn is now priced below Brazil for December shipment.
  • The biggest change in official data was fund positioning. CFTC figures released Friday (positions as of Tuesday) showed money managers cutting their net bullish corn position to about 246,400 contracts from about 329,800, a drop of more than 83,000 in one week and the largest of the grains.
  • Our cash data: Iowa's average interior bid was $4.35 Friday, with basis steady near 39 cents under December all week, so the cash decline there simply tracked futures.
  • For the Columbia Basin: Portland's latest weekly corn print (Oct. 9) had delivered yellow corn at $6.46 a bushel, with basis about $1.66 over December, down 12 cents from the week before. A steady Midwest basis and lower futures mean rail corn coming into the Basin costs a few cents less at origin than it did a week ago.

Reports to watch

  • USDA Crop Progress — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
  • EIA ethanol data (Weekly Petroleum Status Report) — Wed Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET
  • USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET

Sources

Wheat

grains

What the market did

December Chicago wheat settled down 9.5 cents at $6.605 Friday, a two-month low, and finished the week down 10.5 cents. December KC hard red winter fell 9 cents to $7.04 (a three-month low, down 15.25 cents on the week), and December MIAX spring wheat fell 9.5 cents to $6.765 (down 18.75 cents on the week).

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: Plains rain and faster winter wheat planting removed the weather premium, and U.S. export demand hasn't been strong enough to replace it. Support from Black Sea shipping attacks didn't carry into Friday.
  • CFTC data released Friday (positions as of Tuesday): money managers widened their net bearish Chicago wheat position to about 32,600 contracts from about 28,800, and their net bullish KC position shrank to about 17,300 from about 23,300.
  • Our cash data from USDA's Portland report: soft white spot bids averaged $6.49 Friday. That's down 3.5 cents on the day but only about 1.5 cents from $6.50 a week ago, while Chicago December fell 10.5 cents. Dark northern spring 14% averaged $7.145, down about 18 cents on the week, with basis unchanged at 35 to 45 over December. Hard red winter 11% averaged $7.26 with basis unchanged at 20 to 25 over December.
  • For the Columbia Basin: soft white, the Basin's main wheat class, held nearly flat at Portland this week even as futures slid, so local growers felt much less of the drop than Chicago's chart shows. Protein wheat basis didn't move, so those cash prices fell right along with futures. More on our Basis tracker.

Reports to watch

  • USDA Crop Progress (winter wheat planting and emergence) — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
  • USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders — Fri Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET

Sources

Metals

metals

What the market did

Gold futures settled about 0.3% higher Friday, with the front month at $4,159.50 an ounce, and December traded near $4,190 late in the day. Silver settled up about 0.3% at $56.995. Gold finished the week slightly lower, while silver is down sharply on the week after Wednesday's roughly 6% drop.

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: a softer dollar, headed for its first weekly decline in five weeks, gave gold a lift, but rate-hike pricing kept a lid on it. In an IMF speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on the October decision. Markets still lean toward a December hike, and high oil keeps inflation risk in view.
  • A slight uptick in Treasury yields Friday limited the gain, according to WSJ's settlement report.
  • CFTC data released Friday (positions as of Tuesday): money managers trimmed their net bullish gold position to about 107,100 contracts from about 111,000, and in silver to about 5,600 from about 7,500.
  • For the Columbia Basin: metals don't set crop prices here, but the December rate-hike odds weighing on gold are the same ones that will set the cost of operating lines for Basin farms and trucking outfits next season.

Reports to watch

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders — Fri Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET
  • Fed speakers ahead of the next FOMC meeting

Sources

Index (SPY)

index

What the market did

The S&P 500 fell 1.09% Friday to 7,659.44, and SPY closed near $763.25. The Nasdaq dropped 2.14% to 26,140.03, and the Dow slipped 0.34% to 52,002.41. For the week, the S&P 500 lost about 1.95% and the Nasdaq about 4.5%, its worst week since late June, while the Dow gained about 0.7%.

What drove it

  • Our desk's read: the week's selling was concentrated, not broad. Pressure came from AI-infrastructure names whose debt loads look harder to carry with borrowing costs expected to rise (CoreWeave and Broadcom again Friday), while money rotated into defensive sectors, with health care at record highs.
  • Oil back above $100 added an inflation worry heading into the weekend, on top of markets pricing a likely December Fed hike.
  • For the Columbia Basin: the part of this tape that reaches local operations is energy. The same crude rally that weighed on stocks feeds diesel and freight costs for growers and haulers.

Reports to watch

  • Earnings next week: Tesla, Netflix, Meta
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Wed Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET (an energy-price input to the inflation outlook)

Sources

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